After two years of being sellers, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned buyers and infused a whopping Rs 2.06 trillion in Indian equities in FY24. FPIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1.7 trillion in FY22 and FY23, when high valuations and rising interest rates forced them to take the money out of the world’s fastest growing big economy.
With money flowing in from FPIs as well as domestic investors, Indian equity market reached new highs in FY24, with key indices registering their best returns in over a decade, excluding the unusually high returns seen in FY21 on the back of bargain buying post COVID-induced sell-off.
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The benchmark Nifty 50 and Sensex hit a lifetime high of 22,526.60 points and 74,245.17, respectively, in March. The Nifty 50 jumped around 29% in FY24, and the Sensex gained 25%.
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“India is one of the few large economies that provides the opportunity of double-digit nominal GDP growth, double-digit corporate earnings growth, and double-digit return on equity, said Alok Agarwal, head – quant and fund manager (equity) at Alchemy Capital Management.
India was among the biggest beneficiaries of FPI flows during the year in Asia, with only Japan seeing higher inflows, data from Bloomberg showed.
The biggest bets of FPIs in India were in capital goods, automobiles and consumer services sectors, indicating their interest in India’s infrastructure growth potential as well as the consumption story. On the other hand, FPIs were net sellers in metals and mining, media and entertainment, and oil and gas sectors during the financial year.
While the FPIs have been net buyers in FY24, there have been bouts of selling in the later part of the year. Market experts believe that FPI inflows will likely be muted in the near-term in the run up to General Elections even as India remains an attractive investment destination for investors.
Shridatta Bhandwaldar, fund manager and head of equities at Canara Robeco Asset Management Company, highlighted that net FPI flows to India in the last 2-2.5 years has been zero, primarily because of high interest rates and high valuation of domestic equities.
“In US, if you get 5.5-6% return with less risk, why would you go all the way to emerging market to take the currency risk,” Bhandwaldar said.
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As per fund managers, high valuations could limit the FPI inflows in the near term. Even the market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India recently voiced its concerns about the build-up of a potential froth in smallcap and midcap space.
Bhandwaldar said that though FPIs will be attracted to India from a structural perspective given the opportunity that it presents and the cost that they have to pay for that seems to be higher right now given the valuations.
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